The 2026 Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran, following the failure of nuclear negotiations in Geneva and a shorter twelve-day air conflict in 2025. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and American military installations across the region, and its Revolutionary Guard Corps moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas passed before the war. Merchant ships were boarded and attacked, sea mines were laid, and shipping through the strait was largely blocked.

The United States responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports from 13 April to 29 May 2026 and an aerial campaign against Iranian targets along the strait. A ceasefire was reached on 8 April, according to reporting on the conflict, but it did not reopen the strait or end the standoff: by late October 2026 the United States was moving additional naval forces and marines towards the region, two carrier strike groups were already in the wider theatre with a third on the way, and Gulf states were reported to have been briefed on the possibility of American strikes after the United States midterm elections on 3 November. Iran, meanwhile, warned that any fresh attack would risk a much wider regional war, and Iranian representatives met Qatari mediators in Doha on 31 October.

The economic shock travelled far beyond the Gulf. Oil prices rose above 100 dollars a barrel, and the average price of petrol in the United States reached 4.30 dollars a gallon by late October 2026, up from less than 3 dollars before the war began — the highest in four years, according to the American Automobile Association. The World Trade Organization cited the Middle East conflict, higher energy prices and disruption to transport routes as a key risk to its trade outlook, downgrading its services trade forecast and warning of higher fuel and fertiliser costs. For India, which imports most of its crude oil by sea, the crisis underlined the vulnerability of energy supply routes it does not control.

The war also exposed the limits of military superiority at sea. Despite the United States possessing the world's most formidable navy, it had not, by November 2026, fully reopened the strait to normal shipping, and tanker incidents continued to be reported in late October. The episode is a textbook case of geographic coercion: a coastal state using mines, missiles, drones and the regulation of authorised routes to impose costs on far stronger adversaries, and a reminder that control of a chokepoint can matter as much as victory in battle.