Europe in 2026: the far right inside the tent, and a budget on the brink

Europe's politics in 2026 are defined less by parties trying to leave the European Union than by parties trying to run it from within. Challenger parties, driven mainly by the radical right, stood at a record 32.6 per cent support across Europe in a 2026 index, and anti-Brussels parties sat in eleven of thirty-one European governments. In the European Parliament, the European Conservatives and Reformists group and the Patriots for Europe group together command roughly a fifth of the 720 seats — enough not to block legislation outright, but enough to amend it, as in the long-drawn revision of the EU's return directive on deporting failed asylum seekers. The exit clauses have gone from manifestos: France's National Rally dropped Frexit years ago, and Germany's Alternative for Germany has softened Dexit language into a Europe of nation-states, with the new pitch focused on migration, energy pricing and farm rules.

The electoral calendar sharpened the tension. In France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen topped presidential polling near 33 per cent ahead of the April–May 2027 election, saying that if elected she would keep training Ukrainian troops and supplying equipment while ending French financial support for Ukraine. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany won two eastern regional elections in September 2026 and led national opinion polls at around 28 per cent, criticising Chancellor Friedrich Merz's support for Ukraine, estimated at more than 12 billion euros in 2026, as costly and provocative towards Moscow. European officials at the United Nations in September played down fears that such victories would derail support for Kyiv, while acknowledging the risk.

The budget fight brought the politics into the open. In October 2026, EU leaders headed for their biggest clash yet over the bloc's next long-term budget, a nearly two-trillion-euro package for 2028 to 2034 covering agriculture, defence, competitiveness and migration. Ireland, holding the rotating presidency, tabled a proposal cutting about 140 billion euros from the total; Germany led the frugal camp demanding cuts of several hundred billion euros, while France opposed massive cuts and pushed for EU-wide taxes on digital services, crypto-assets and online gambling. Leaders raced for a pre-Christmas deal, fearing elections across the bloc — above all in France — would make a 2027 agreement far harder.

For India, Europe's internal politics matter: the EU is a major trading partner and strategic partner, with a free trade agreement concluded in January 2026 awaiting ratification. A Parliament that amends migration and green rules, a French election that could change the EU's second economy's stance, and a budget deciding defence and competitiveness spending will all shape the partnership India has just negotiated — and the deal's ratification path.