The Global Terrorism Index 2026: fewer deaths, a sharper map

The Institute for Economics and Peace published the 13th edition of its Global Terrorism Index in March 2026, covering 163 countries. Its headline was encouraging: 5,582 people were killed in 2,944 terrorist incidents in 2025, with deaths down 28 per cent and incidents down nearly 22 per cent, the lowest totals since 2007, and improvements in 81 countries against deterioration in only 19. But the geography beneath the headline was stark. Nearly 70 per cent of all terrorism deaths occurred in just five countries — Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo — and the Sahel region alone accounted for more than half of all terrorism deaths worldwide, up from under 1 per cent in 2007.

Pakistan topped the index for the first time, with 1,139 deaths and 1,045 incidents in 2025, its highest level since 2013, driven by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army and by cross-border militant activity from Afghanistan; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan accounted for 74 per cent of attacks and 67 per cent of fatalities. Burkina Faso ranked second, with deaths falling 45 per cent to 846, though attacks became deadlier, with the largest single attack killing 120 soldiers. Niger ranked third with 703 deaths, Nigeria fourth with 750 deaths, up 46 per cent, with Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province responsible for 80 per cent; Mali was fifth. The four deadliest groups in 2025, Islamic State, JNIM, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and al-Shabaab, together caused 3,869 deaths, or 70 per cent of the global total.

India improved to 13th place, from 14th, reflecting a decline in attacks, consistent with the parallel decline in Left-Wing Extremism. The index also found that 98 per cent of terrorism deaths between 2007 and 2025 occurred in countries experiencing conflict, and that terrorism is increasingly a borderland phenomenon: over 41 per cent of attacks in 2025 occurred within 50 kilometres of an international border and 64 per cent within 100 kilometres, up from a much lower share a decade and a half ago.

The index warned that the 2025 improvement may prove a temporary reprieve rather than a sustained trend. It flagged the mass escape of over 20,000 Islamic State-affiliated individuals from Syrian detention facilities as one of the most significant emerging terrorism risks globally, and noted that in the Sahel, jihadists were reducing civilian attacks while consolidating territory and blockading major cities. For analysts, the lesson is to read terrorism data as a map of conflict and state weakness, not as a league table of ideology: where states cannot control borderlands, armed groups fill the vacuum.