The 2026 monsoon: a deficit, unevenly shared

India's southwest monsoon of 2026 ended as a deficient season. According to the India Meteorological Department's season-end report, rainfall over the country as a whole from June to September was 759.4 millimetres, or 87 per cent of the long period average, which IMD classifies as deficient. It was the fourth-lowest seasonal total since 2001 and the weakest monsoon since 2015. The national figure, however, hides two different seasons, and the regional split is the sharper finding.

Central India received 97 per cent of its long period average and Northwest India 94 per cent, both near normal. The South Peninsula finished at 76 per cent, its fourth-lowest since 1901 and second-lowest since 2001, while East and Northeast India received 74 per cent, with 1,017.1 millimetres recorded as the lowest for that region since 1901. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 received normal rainfall, 17 were deficient, and one, Odisha, received excess rainfall. The monsoon advanced over the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands on 16 May, nearly six days earlier than normal, and covered the entire country by 9 July, yet an early start did not produce a strong season.

The monthly pattern explains why. June delivered only 65 per cent of its long period average, July recovered to 101 per cent, and August and September slipped back to 84 and 92 per cent. There were 77 low-pressure-system days against a normal of 57, including 14 low-pressure systems, six of them monsoon depressions. In other words, the season had plenty of weather systems but not enough rain from them, and the dry start was never fully repaired. A drought monitor developed by researchers at IIT Gandhinagar estimated that 51.2 per cent of India's geographical area was under drought conditions during the first nine months of 2026, against about 18 per cent in the same period of 2025.

For policy, the lesson is about distribution, not just totals. A national deficit of 13 per cent can mean a near-normal harvest in one region and a failed one in another, and district-level dry spells can damage crops even where seasonal totals look close to normal. That is why relief, crop insurance, and water planning must work at district scale, and why a single all-India number should never be the end of the monsoon story.