Cyclone Arnab and the second storm behind it

Cyclone Arnab was the first named storm of the 2026 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, and it arrived late. It developed over the Bay of Bengal from 25 October 2026, intensified to a very severe cyclonic storm, the third-highest category on the India Meteorological Department's scale, and crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast early on 28 October, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with sustained winds of approximately 130 kilometres per hour at landfall. The IMD classifies a storm with sustained winds between 118 and 166 kilometres per hour as a very severe cyclonic storm. After crossing the coast, the system weakened over land, and by 30 October it was no longer a cyclone over the sea.

What made the week remarkable was what followed. As Arnab's remnants moved inland, a second system gathered over the southeast Bay of Bengal. By the morning of 1 November 2026 it had intensified into a deep depression, centred about 700 kilometres east-southeast of Chennai, and the IMD forecast it to become a cyclonic storm by midnight, strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm on 2 November, and cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur on the morning of 3 November, with sustained winds of 100 to 110 kilometres per hour and gusts to 120. If it developed into a cyclonic storm, it would be named Murasu, a name contributed by India meaning “drum” in Tamil. At the time of writing, that landfall is a forecast, not an event, and readers should check the latest IMD bulletin.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra attributed the back-to-back cyclones to an active Madden-Julian Oscillation in phase 3 near the Bay of Bengal, which helped generate two cyclones one after the other. He also noted that there had been no cyclones during the pre-monsoon or monsoon seasons of 2026, attributing the below-normal activity partly to strong El Niño conditions, which tend to reduce cyclone numbers over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. India usually records four to five cyclones a year, with three to four in the October to December post-monsoon season.

The human story sits behind the meteorology. A second storm striking the same coastline days after the first tests evacuation, relief, and repair systems while they are still deployed, and reports on 1 November said twelve people remained unaccounted for at a landslide site in Odisha's Ganjam district after Arnab. Back-to-back hazards are a distinct disaster-management problem: resources, attention, and public compliance all wear thin the second time.