Climate change and India's climate commitments

Climate change is driven by greenhouse gases, above all carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, which trap heat in the atmosphere and warm the planet. Its effects in India include hotter summers, more intense rainfall events, changing monsoon patterns, sea-level rise along coasts, and stress on agriculture, water and health. Because the gases mix globally, no country can solve the problem alone, and international negotiations decide how the burden of cutting emissions is shared.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 set a global goal of holding warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees. Each country sets its own Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC, stating its targets. India submitted its first NDC in 2015 and an updated NDC in August 2022, translating the Panchamrit pledges announced at the Glasgow climate conference in 2021 into formal commitments.

The updated NDC commits India to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, to achieving about 50 per cent of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, and to creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. Alongside the NDC, India announced a target of 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070. Net zero means that any remaining emissions are balanced by removals, such as forests or carbon capture.

India's negotiating position rests on equity and common but differentiated responsibilities, the principle in the climate convention that countries have contributed differently to the problem and have different capacities to act. India argues that its per-person emissions remain low, that development needs, including energy access and poverty reduction, must be respected, and that developed countries should provide finance and technology. Critics, including some other developing countries and climate advocates, argue that all large emitters, including India, must cut absolute emissions faster, and that equity cannot justify delay.

Delivery is the test. Meeting the 2030 targets requires rapid renewable expansion, grid strengthening, energy storage, efficient industry and transport, and forest restoration, all while meeting growing energy demand. Whether India reaches its targets, and whether finance arrives at the promised scale, will be judged from emissions data and capacity additions in the years to 2030, not from pledges alone.